October 13, 2016
The United States is going to change radically in the 21st century, and in ways a lot of people will be unhappy with. To some extent this is unavoidable, as decisions made in the 20th century regarding the demographic and political direction the country should go in have had slow-boiling consequences which we are only beginning to experience now. From the tri-racialization taking place in the coastal South, to the flipping of California and the Southwest from Anglo to mestizo, to the decline of the Eastern elite, to the rise of non-white identity politics in the Democratic party, to the coalescing of White population into an increasingly national populist Republican party, to the general leftward shift of the American culture, the list of changes completed or ongoing in the 21st century that diverge from the status quo(s) of last century grows larger and more impactful every day.
Taken individually, many of these changes are limited in their consequences, but when viewed in context with other shifts, they may give us more insight into what direction the United States will go in. It is impossible to completely predict this in terms of composition, culture, politics, and system of government. That being said, there are a variety of outcomes one might imagine with varying levels of plausibility. One outcome we can be certain of, however, is that our situation will change significantly. Even if current trends simply persist, the United States will be another country in twenty years. Here are some possibilities:
Anglo-Brazil: Hart-Celler’s America
This is where we go if no one pulls the emergency brake. The borders remain open, the Democratic party gets a permanent majority on the backs of third world immigrants, and all competitive elections are between different sorts of socialists, some more tribalistic than others for their specific constituency. I would not be surprised to see in several decades a WASP-Jewish-Black neoliberal-socialist party that primarily runs against a more Latino-leaning protectionist-socialist party aligned with the Catholic church.
Historiography changes completely as events like the colonization of the Americas and the Cold War are remembered with bitter hate as transgressions of Europe against the rest of the world. It is not totally anti-European, but European influence is viewed as a mixed bag while non-European is inherently good. There is no longer a role for the folkish White conservatism of Old America, and politicians who hold such views control single digit percentages of state legislatures while media sympathetic to them is considered extremely low status.
In time, the United States becomes a largely mocha-colored country, with an upper stratum based upon lighter skin (whether White, Jewish, Asian, or hybrid) and wealth (which allows for token representation of blacks and mestizos). Racism is “defeated,” and colorism takes its place. Some regions of the country remain heavily European, such as economically abandoned Appalachia, but elsewhere the rising tide and miscegenation ensure a population where names will ultimately tell you little about someone’s appearance. The elites are mostly drawn from the international business community and often politically dynastic. They live in heavily policed districts surrounded by poverty. Private security is also widely utilized, and there are strong ties between the government, the business community, the police-military (which have merged into “security forces”), and private contractors, with each element patronizing the others and exchanging personnel.
The English language gets preserved as a lingua franca, but heavy dialect shifts occur in Northeast and the coastal South as a result of immigration, while Hispanicized areas stretching from California to Texas become even more bilingual in Spanish. Command of the Spanish language becomes a de facto requirement to win elections there, leading to electoral curiosities like Spanish-speaking Chinese governors and senators in California. Spanish does not come to dominate other areas of the country however, since immigration waves from elsewhere continue to overtake inflows from Latin America (as they currently do). In fact, they accelerate as more “refugees” from the Middle East and Africa are taken in and as migration from Asia continues. In the areas that these Hart-Celler Americans settle, English simply becomes more simplified grammatically and takes on more loanwords. There is some promotion of a national culture and shared identity as a nation of immigrants, but blood and soil patriotism is a dead letter and celebrating diversity reigns as the civil religion.
Israel is not particularly liked but the American attitude towards it stays polite enough. The NATO alliance remains intact as the main players—the United States, Britain, and France—are all cosmopolitan and neoliberal enough to cooperate. Relations with Asia and Africa are peculiar as the United States inherits its imperialistic legacy despite no longer being run by imperialists. It seeks closer ties to Latin America and the Caribbean, viewing itself as a regional leader of other mystery meat in its hemisphere. The nuclear arsenal is maintained, as the country wishes to remain a great power.
At least we still have the Constitution, right?
South Africa Lite: The Third World’s America
A more extreme outcome than the Anglo-Brazil scenario, the non-white majority United States becomes not merely heavily left-wing, but intolerant of any sort of White political or economic power (and to a lesser extent intolerant of Jewish or Asian power). Third world immigration continues as per usual and then accelerates as wars, famines, birthrates, and climate change push ever more colonists over the open border. It’s a lite scenario since the United States will never be as black as South Africa, but one can certainly imagine it becoming as White as South Africa in 75-150 years.
Political parties are openly marxist or “revolutionary”—always in a third worldist sense—and are primarily organized around racial animus rather than simple economic demands that might benefit some races over others. There is actually less mixing than under the brazilianization scenario, because the colored majority pushes hard enough against the White minority to cause them retrench into isolated communities and districts out of fear and security concerns. However, polite White leadership concedes and acknowledges the political situation, which is of them being de facto barred from most elected offices and having to accept any and all anti-white discrimination laws. European Americans live in a sort of limbo where they are allowed to retain enough of their wealth but not use it to advance their interests, slowly being strong-armed into dispersing it and reducing themselves generation after generation.
Iconoclasm is rampant, as anything associated with White settler-colonial society gets purged from the public space, and historiography adjusts to reflect the new understanding that the oppressors have been defeated. Any elements of European history or culture in the United States are viewed as evil and needing correction and re-education. To the extent that a national culture exists, it is built around a message of triumphing over Europeans and celebrating the diversity of African, Asian, and Latin American influences.
Israel is hated. The NATO alliance is strained or completely disengaged because it involves Europeans. Relations with the third world are cordial so long as they do not involve trade disputes, and the United States is seen as an international champion of their political causes. It is still an American century. It’s just that America behaves more like the Soviet Union.
The country becomes an even greater leader in supporting the rights of Afro-Islamic migrants and refugees to settle in Europe and North America, as a major pillar of foreign policy is to promote social justice. The nuclear arsenal could go either way: maintained as a deterrent against imperialists in a sort of muscular third worldism, or scrapped out of a commitment to staunchly anti-war pacifism. Don’t worry about it falling apart. There are plenty of H1B1 visas for nuclear scientists.
Castizo Superpower: The Off-White America
This is what happens if the civic nationalists win. The borders are all but shut down. Patriotism, the English-language, and American culture are formally celebrated by the state, which seeks to instill a sense of pride and unity in all of its lawful citizens. Islam is suppressed. Marxist and third worldist excuses for violent crime are no longer tolerated, divisive appeals to identity politics-driven civil rights are not respected, and both popular and elite culture shift to be more nationalistic and conciliatory rather than rooted in critical theory. “America First” becomes a legitimate meme.
Equality is better achieved through working together and the markets, rather than affirmative action programs or aggressive social engineering, the government believes. Political parties tend to be centrist and patriotic. Immigration quotas are likely implemented and entry qualifications made that are similar to Australia or Canada. You have to really add something economically—and not be a religious extremist—to be let in. And so very few people are let in, except for middle and upper class Latin Americans, East Asians, and Indians (with a small sprinkling of Europeans).
What makes this United States a “castizo superpower” is that it retains the hegemony of the United States in European and pan-American affairs, but becomes an off-white country. In the Spanish colonies, castizo referred to a caste of people who were of mostly European (Spanish) ancestry with some indio or negro, as opposed to the eventually more numerous mestizos, who were roughly half-European and half-Indian in ancestry. There is of course some irony in this prediction, of a racially castizo country that speaks English.
One might imagine, and fairly, that if civic nationalists have their way from 2017 onward, that in a United States with the current demographic profile and rising rates of miscegenation, but one in which immigration has been throttled to a trickle, the American of the future would look perhaps more Argentine or Costa Rican than Scots-Irish or German. More than half of all children under five years-old in the United States were something other than “non-Hispanic White” in 2016. No immigration quotas will change this, and unless an explicitly eurocentric policy were enacted, most immigrants would still be from outside of Europe—there would just be less of them.
Over time, the country would end up with a plurality or majority off-white population, with smaller fully-White, black, and mestizo minorities. Just looking at intermarriage trends now, the Asian and Jewish minorities could be almost completely gone in a few more generations (without migration). Growing numbers of lighter-skinned or wealthier English-monoglot Hispanics or Hispanic-descent persons would start identifying as White. Wealth plays a similar role in racial identification in Latin America after all, and research in the United States suggests later generation Hispanics are more likely to self-identify as White, especially as they move out of their parents’ and grandparents’ immigrant communities. On some level it makes sense since many by that point may only be for example “half Puerto Rican” or “half Mexican,” which in reality might mean that they are as “Indian” as someone from rural Tennessee.
Civic nationalists would welcome this transformation as assimilation. But really it only works if there is a large majority to assimilate into, culturally and genetically. More than half of all children under five are already non-white; ditto for a majority of public schoolchildren. Hence, this will not be assimilation but more of a creolization. In the long-run, the ultimate product of this will not just be a larger population with a shared, replicated culture, as assimilationists would like. That is a racially-blind projection. Instead you will have a larger population where the average person is of partial mystery meat ancestry and possibly having a shared culture, but more likely a hybrid one. Currently that is not the case, but if nothing changes that is the future. And in all likelihood, the lighter people would have lower birthrates as well, meaning a castizo United States could become less European over time. (This has happened in South American countries).
There will of course still be an African minority, remaining mostly endogamous and poor. That has almost never changed throughout the history of the United States and it probably wouldn’t if law-and-order, affirmative action skeptic, civic nationalists ran the United States. The organized Jewish community too would persist, though heavily made up of mischlings, and of declining influence as it skews to be more insular and ultra-orthodox (owing to their higher fertility).
But the castizo superpower scenario rests on a number of miraculous outcomes, the biggest being a political and cultural victory over the left. It is easy to imagine national populists taking over the country for a couple of election cycles, but unless they spark a major cultural shift or work to embed people in institutions dedicated to continuing their policies, they will not be able to check the rampant spread of marxism and third worldism. Indeed, so much dialogue today centers around not assimilating into White American cultural norms and rather destroying them that it is hard to imagine a United States where that kind of cultural and political polarization has been overcome. The notion of a multiracial Eurocentric culture does have an oxymoronic feel to it.
Yet, the potential for de-radicalization is there. If enough economic prosperity can be brought about to plaster over the tensions of diversity and immigration enforcement, Americans may simply wake up one day in a castizo country without having even given it much thought. The offspring of European-mestizo and European-Asian pairings might simply find more common ground with Whites than with their endogamous cousins or blacks, leading to a centrist-nationalist society if governed properly (i.e., illiberally).
Most of the current geopolitical arrangements would remain intact—the relationship with Israel, the NATO alliance, the pseudo Cold War with China, etc. What would be different would be a much greater reluctance to fight neocon wars and a sort of return to Jacksonian isolationism. Relations with Latin American countries such as Mexico or Cuba might be very poor though given the immigration restrictions, linguistic chauvinism, and protectionist economic policies. The nuclear arsenal is viewed as a symbol of national pride, a product of American greatness. In fact, it may be the only point of distinction that makes this Castizo America great.
White Deep State: The Sick Man of the Americas
In this scenario, hardliner civic nationalists (who are almost White nationalists in practice) win, but the left does not retreat. They come to power by the skin of their teeth against an enemy that is not looking to compromise. It’s a 51% sort of situation, but it will be the last time open democracy is allowed to elect an administration. The government and a number of important departments and institutions (such as the army, the police, the intelligence apparatus) are purged of leftists and placed firmly in the hands of nationalists and authoritarian conservatives, while the population is inclined towards even more extreme liberalism than now. The culture war was lost, remember? The United States ends up de facto run by de facto White nationalists, but mostly populated by third worlders, due to ongoing demographic shifts. These shifts cannot be stopped while maintaining a charade democracy. No one is happy, and the metaphor of holding a wolf by the ears comes to mind.
Institutionally a culture develops in the leadership caste of the deep state that views the country as on the brink of collapse (which is probably true), and believes un-democratic and repressive measures are needed to preserve it. The government is redpilled, or even blackpilled so to speak, on how bad the demographics of the United States, and realizes it has acted far too late to make it great again. While not a total police state, the country clearly shifts away from liberal democracy. Opposition parties can exist, the executive doesn’t have to be explicitly pro-deep state but at least pay lip service, and local governments can diverge on some issues, but there are lines which cannot be crossed, and savvy politicians and parties that don’t want to end up in a bad place know it.
Ironically, some on the American far-left already believe this exists, that the United States is run by closeted “White supremacists” or that a significant number of Republicans or police officers are in the KKK (which they believe is a powerful organization), etc. This is of course not true, since if the United States really were a “white-supremacist-capitalist-patriarchy,” it would function extremely differently than it does now. Obama could not have been nominated and elected, there would be no debate over deporting foreign-born liberal-voting non-whites, etc., were the United States run by a White nationalist deep state.
Post-Ottoman Turkey is often described as having a deep state, one in which Kemalists (secular Turkish nationalists) hold actual power in the country and fight to suppress Islamists and Kurdish separatists, since those succeeding would mean the end of their vision of Turkey. They also tend to be more, shall we say “racially Byzantine.” But since Turkey is so heavily Muslim and swathes of the east are Kurdish-majority, their vision may not be so popular if put to a vote. Hence the existence of a deep state is theorized, one in which the already powerful hold state power rather than deriving their power from the state. And over its recent history, Turkey has had a number of reactionary coups attributed to the machinations of this deep state.
Should civic nationalists, who are implicitly White, come to power in the United States within the next couple of election cycles, they may find it impossible to win these contests going forward as the electorate becomes more diverse and left-wing. They would then be in a similar position as Kemalists, governing a population which wants something staunchly different than its leaders. Civic nationalists would have to set up a deep state; they’d need to control the army, internal security, and intelligence bureaus, win the loyalty of the business and mafia classes or create new ones, redistrict legislative seats, change voting laws, gerrymander the whole country to give more power to rural and suburban (White) counties, etc., to keep control. Otherwise the country might regress to Anglo-Brazil. And from their perspective, that would be bad, as bad as Islamism is to Kemalists.
Foreign policy would become much more Jacksonian and isolationist. Too many resources would be tied up in maintaining domestic control for the United States to led any major foreign engagements. Joint military exercises with friendly countries would be highly promoted as a show of state power and prestige, but other involvement would likely be limited. NATO may be reduced in scope, if not dissolved. Foreign aid would likely cease. It would be hard to imagine a nationalist United States continuing to donate billions to Israel, Egypt, and Jordan, for instance. The nuclear arsenal would be neurotically guarded out of fear of terrorism, and heavily invested in due to the obsession with defense.
Another interesting scenario in foreign policy, however remote, could be the simultaneous emergence of several White deep states. Britain, France, Australia, and perhaps others, experiencing similar demographic pressures, might also develop nationalist movements too late to reverse course but in enough time to take security measures in defense of the state and the position of Whites in it. These countries would be natural allies, just as they would be fellow international pariahs.
North American White Ethnostate: An Amerikaner Homeland
This is it. The Empire has collapsed, perhaps in a Soviet-style dissolution, or at worst, a bloody civil war. An entirely new state, the ethnostate, has emerged, and the United States survives as a rump state or is completely gone. White nationalism is memed into reality. The ethnostate has a European super-majority population, and is extremely nationalist and nativist. English is the official language. Minorities do not have citizenship and only White immigration is allowed. Amerikaner refugees pour in from the West Coast and the Northeast.
A variety of different governments are possible for the ethnostate, though none would strongly resemble liberal democracy. It could be a party dictatorship, an aristocratic republic, a praetorian ethnocracy, or any number of LARPy regimes. But in all likelihood it would be semi-democratic with a highly restricted franchise, a strong executive branch, and higher militarization than America is used to. A weak or decentralized government subject to the whims of the masses simply would not survive in an environment that produced the ethnostate.
Geopolitically, the ethnostate would be much weaker than the United States. In terms of land, it could plausibly be anywhere from 30-70% smaller, depending on when in the future the ethnostate forms and how third-worldized the United States has become by then. One would expect it not to include places such as California, parts of the emerging triracial South and Texas, the New York metropolitan area, Chicago, Detroit, or the capital District of Columbia. High defense spending and the dedication of huge resources toward securing the borders would be a given.
Ties with Israel are either completely disestablished, or there are informal relations involving population transfer. The ethnostate is largely an international pariah, especially to Canada, Latin America, Western Europe, Africa, and parts of Asia. NATO has been disbanded. The country relies on its nuclear arsenal and possibly Russian or Chinese backing to deter the other successors to the United States from being aggressive.
In a more beneficial scenario, there could be one or several White deep states or other White ethnostates elsewhere in the world. These would be allies or clients of the North American one.
Total Aryan Victory: The LARPer’s America
So, uh, somehow White nationalists take over the entire United States. All non-white people, from Guam to Minnesota to Puerto Rico are physically removed. The United States becomes the world’s chief exporter of White revolution and sponsors ethnonationalism, separatism, and supremacy around the globe. Canada is unilaterally annexed and placed under martial law. The United States invades Mexico and sets up a buffer zone in the northern third of that country. Americans intervene with ground troops and air support in civil wars in countries like France, England, Germany, Sweden, Belgium, the Netherlands, and Italy on behalf of ethno-nationalists. Arms and cash are sent to revolutionaries in Argentina, Chile, Uruguay, and southern Brazil. Israel is militarily occupied.
Just a prank, bro.
Change You Will Believe In
What is happening in the United States is something which has really never been done before in a peaceful and democratic way. No people has ever been replaced by “their” government so effortlessly and without armed struggle. The left relishes pointing out the mass extinction of indigenous peoples from the land that occurred as a result of European colonization of the country as a way to self-flagellate and morally terrorize Whites, but they never quite make the connection that such a process serves as a dire warning against permitting mass migration, or that it is immoral as a general principle to replace a population for political reasons. Which is a bit surprising for such heavy moralizers if you ask me.
When they do smell a struggle boiling over what is being done, they are sure to condemn it as racist or xenophobic. For a long time, White Americans have remained ignorant of the fact that this replacement process is now happening to them, and at the hands of their own government. We know that when they are made aware of this, they tend to vote more conservatively. We also know they vote with their feet and move to suburbs or put their children into private schools, demonized as “White flight” and “re-segregation.” It is the only form of ethnic-cleansing in which one is allowed to blame the victims. The Trump phenomenon too is widely recognized on the left and right as being driven by Whiteness. But will Whites decide that is enough, should they decide in favor of it at all? Will they become more radical? Will they embrace the Alt-Right? Will they do nothing?
The future of the United States ultimately depends on how these millions decide to act in the next twenty years.