I’m still dealing with higher levels of stress than I’ve had in my entire life, as I’m sure you all are. If you’re not, then there is something wrong with you.
However, you maybe have noticed that I’m much less of a doom-sayer than I was a couple of months ago.
That is because my belief is, actually, that Donald Trump is going to win, and that after winning, he will manage to stay in office.
The media and the pollsters are now hedging their bets. It was really embarrassing for them last time.
The following piece was heavily promoted by POLITICO, as if they want everyone to know “we wrote an article that said maybe orange man might win…”
By almost every measure that political operatives, academics and handicappers use to forecast elections, the likely outcome is that Joe Biden will win the White House.
Yet two weeks before Election Day, the unfolding reality of 2020 is that it’s harder than ever to be sure. And Democrats are scrambling to account for the hidden variables that could still sink their nominee — or what you might call the known unknowns.
Republican registration has ticked up in key states at the same time Democratic field operations were in hibernation. Democratic turnout is surging in the early vote. But it’s unclear whether it will be enough to overcome an expected rush of ballots that Republicans, leerier of mail voting, will cast in person on Nov. 3.
There is uncertainty about the accuracy of polling in certain swing states, the efficacy of GOP voter suppression efforts and even the number of mail-in ballots that for one reason or another will be disqualified.
“There are more known unknowns than we’ve ever had at any point,” said Tom Bonier, CEO of the Democratic data firm TargetSmart. “The instruments we have to gauge this race, the polling, our predictive models … the problem is all those tools are built around quote-unquote normal elections. And this is anything but a normal election.”
On a recent video call with Democratic Party state chairs, Bonier laid out an overwhelmingly positive electoral landscape for Biden. But he cautioned that even small variations in turnout projections could have a substantial effect on the outcome. For that reason, among others, Democrats are poring over early vote totals, circulating anxiety-ridden campaign memos and bracing for a long two weeks.
“We don’t know what insanity Trump will hurl into the mix,” said Matt Bennett of the center-left group Third Way. “Every day is a week and every week is a month. It’s going to feel like a long time between now and November 3rd.”
Of all the reasons for Democrats to be uncertain, the most worrisome for the party is the one that — for now — is going very well for them: Turnout. More than 27 million people had already voted nationwide as of Sunday, some after standing in line for hours, according to data compiled by the United States Elections Project. In states that report returns by party, Democrats are returning more ballots than Republicans. Republicans and Democrats alike believe early voters in other states lean Democratic, as well.
But political professionals don’t know how great an advantage Democrats will build in the early vote — or whether it will be enough to overcome the wave of votes that Republicans are expected to cast in person.
Flagging “clear warning signs” for Biden, one prominent strategist circulated a memo among Democrats earlier this month citing increasing registration of white, noncollege educated voters — President Donald Trump’s base demographic — in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. There is no precedent for Trump overcoming such a large polling deficit this close to the election, the strategist wrote. “And yet … ”
“And yet, ellipses,” indeed.
The media is doing the exact same thing they did in 2016 to attempt to demoralize the population. But this time, the other part of that is that they are planning the single biggest election fraud attack in all of human history.
But ultimately: the Supreme Court is going to decide.
Trump’s “nominate a woman” thing worked.
A slim majority of US voters now support confirming Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court, according to a new Morning Consult poll.
Voters were asked whether the Senate should vote to confirm Barrett’s nomination to the high court. Overall, 51% of voters said the Senate should vote to confirm Barrett, while 28% said the Senate should not vote to confirm her. This represents a 14 percentage point rise in support for Barrett’s confirmation since she was nominated to the Supreme Court on September 26, according to Morning Consult’s polling.
The percentage of Democrats supporting Barrett’s confirmation has more than doubled since she was nominated in late September, the polling showed.
On September 26, just 14% of Democrats said the Senate should confirm Barrett. The share of Democrats who now say the Senate should confirm Barrett has risen to 32% — an 18 percentage point jump. Meanwhile, 48% of Democrats still say the Senate should not vote to confirm her.
The vast majority of Republicans (79%) said the Senate should vote to confirm Barrett. Support among GOP voters for Barrett’s confirmation has steadily risen since she was nominated, rising eight percentage points overall from September 26 to now.
Thirty-two percent of Democrats is insane.
Almost as insane as Amy Two-Names’ Crazy Eyes.
Trump did a magic trick here.
Note that I don’t think Trump should leave office even if the Supreme Court says he lost. I don’t think he should leave under any circumstances. And if he does lose, he’s going to prison and getting tortured to death. Or they might just allow Antifa to kill him.
So he has nothing to lose.
And this is the thing: there is never going to be any way to know if he won or not. It just simply isn’t going to be possible, because of these 80 million ballots that just got mailed all over the place. This is now just totally about power, most of which probably comes from public opinion.
Biden could well totally collapse here very soon.
This stuff with Hunter is really, really looking bad.
The media is saying at the debate, Trump is going to “attack Hunter.”
Donald Trump has made clear he’s coming after Hunter Biden at Thursday’s debate for allegedly profiting off his father’s position. And Joe Biden would seem to have an easy comeback: Look at what your own kids have done since you became president.
So far, though, Biden has refused to go there. And he’s likely to maintain that posture during the debate, according to advisers and allies, despite a vow by Trump’s campaign that “there will be no escape” for Biden from questions about his son’s business dealings.
“Do we really want to have a debate about politicians’ children when people are really struggling to no end? Throw a quick combo and get out,” Democratic strategist James Carville said of how Biden should handle Trump’s attacks.
Carville said Biden should say: “You want to have an election about my son? This is not a conversation that I want to have and I don’t think it’s a conversation the American people are gonna want to have. You can talk all day about that. I’m going to talk about where this country is going.’”
Even some Republicans said Biden would be wise not to engage on Hunter Biden or Trump’s kids. “We have an economic crisis, a genuine pandemic, social unrest on our streets. Nobody cares what’s on Hunter Biden’s computer,” said GOP pollster Frank Luntz.
Trump and his allies have been cranking up the anti-Hunter machine, following a New York Post story last week asserting it obtained a batch of documents that tie the Democratic nominee to his son Hunter’s business dealings. The Post reported it was given a copy of Hunter Biden’s laptop hard drive by Giuliani, Trump’s personal lawyer, who said he got it from a computer shop owner in Delaware who also alerted the FBI.
Director of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe said on Monday that the information on Biden’s laptop “is not part of some Russian disinformation campaign,” though the FBI is reportedly conducting an ongoing investigation into whether Russia was involved.
The media is somehow managing to not talk about what is in these emails.
I do hope that Trump doesn’t “attack Hunter Biden” in this debate.
Hunter Biden is only relevant in terms of his relationship to Joe Biden.
I hope that Trump understands this.
Giuliani doesn’t appear to understand it. He is out there talking about an email where Hunter Biden says he got naked and smoked crack in front of a 14-year-old girl.
DEVELOPING: @RudyGiuliani displays a "very, very sensitive" alleged text message from Hunter Biden, which he claims to have handed over to the Delaware state police. @gregkellyusa https://t.co/VlT7z8drtO pic.twitter.com/nzbzAb9QbF
— Newsmax (@newsmax) October 20, 2020
That’s of course very bad behavior, but it’s kind of neither here nor there, given that Hunter Biden is not running for president. He can try to say, like, “Joe is a bad father, his son? The guy gets naked and smokes crack in front of teenagers.” But that is a horrible strategy. Firstly, most people probably won’t believe that, because the Jewish media is saying that these emails are part of a Russian conspiracy. Secondly, most people don’t really think it is ethical to try to hold people responsible for the behavior of their adult children.
Here’s the thing about Hunter Biden being a crackhead: the reason that is relevant is that he was given all of these high level jobs all around the world.
Q: Why would a crackhead, who can’t possibly be competent in business, get those jobs?
A: The only reason would be because he’s the son of the Vice President.
Q: Why would you want to hire the son of the Vice President?
A: To give him money, for which he then rewards you by giving you access to the Vice President.
Q: Why would you want access to the Vice President?
A: So he would use the power of his office to do favors for you.
We have all of that on record:
- Hunter Biden was hired by Burisma, a Ukrainian energy company that was engaging in all kinds of fraud following the chaos of the revolution in 2014.
- Burisma was being investigated by a Ukrainian prosecutor.
- Hunter introduced at least one executive from Burisma to Joe.
- Joe then publicly demanded that the prosecutor that was looking into Burisma be fired, under threat of cutting money to the country.
- The Ukrainian government fired the prosecutor.
This is very simple.
Here’s the email from Vadym Pozharskyi, a Burisma exec:
Here’s the video of Joe bragging that he was going to withhold a billion dollars if they didn’t fire the prosecutor that was investigating Burisma:
(By the way – and this is so stupid – that text at the beginning of that clip says “2006.” It’s 2016. I’m so exhausted by this censorship, and having to find these random stupid clips because everything else was deleted.)
Here’s a text message of Hunter complaining that Joe takes half of the salary from the jobs that Hunter takes in this pay-to-play scheme:
(By the way, what a whiny crackhead – he wouldn’t even have any money at all if it wasn’t for his father, and a 50-50 split seems like more than he deserves.)
Americans don’t like this kind of corruption.
The problem with this stuff is that the masses of peasants who determine these election outcomes are stupid, hence the undying Jewish support for democracy. It’s somewhat complicated to explain this “pay-to-play” stuff, I guess. The kind of person who is able to understand what I just explained has already decided who he’s voting for.
But the thing is: the point of the debate is to demoralize the opposition, and get them to not bother voting, and more importantly, to not fight during the period after the election.
Furthermore, all of the top blacks have endorsed Trump.
Kanye West and 50 Cent endorsed him outright, whereas Ice Cube is working with him and won’t condemn him.
I think after he went on that rampage against the Jews and had the whole media attacking him, Cube started warming up to Trump. A black rapper who talks about Jews definitely has the same enemies as Trump. That’s for certain.
So you’re gonna have a real hard time getting blacks to care about any of this.