October 31, 2015
This is great news for Scotland.
It’s really going to help their economy.
New migrants to Scotland are set to outstrip the number of babies born within the country by nine to one over the next ten years, according to new figures from the Office of National Statistics (ONS). Overall, the UK’s population is expected to grow by nearly 10 million over the next 25 years, with the majority of new arrivals settling in England. However, the estimates are based on figures recorded before the migrant crisis, and are therefore likely to be a gross underestimate.
For the UK as a whole, the ONS has estimated that the population will grow by 9.7 million over the next 25 years, from an estimated 64.6 million in mid-2014 to 74.3 million in mid-2039. 51 percent of the assumed increase comes from net migration, whereas the rest is expected to come from births within the country.
“Because immigration is concentrated at young adult ages, the assumed level of future net migration has a more immediate effect on the projected number of women of childbearing age and hence the projected number of births,” the ONS said.
Focussing in on Scotland, the ONS has suggest that around 14,000 people will arrive in Scotland per year for the next decade, two thirds of whom will come from outside the UK. That equates to nine new arrivals to the country for every baby born in Scotland.
The figure actually falls below the Scottish government’s target of attracting 25,000 newcomers each year, and represents a downgrade on previous population projections, Herald Scotland has reported.
However, the figures may be a gross underestimate. According to the ONS, the projections are “based on the population as of 30 June 2014”, well before Europe’s current migrant crisis got underway. They also only take into account official migration statistics, but do not appear to include any provision for illegal migration, which is notoriously difficult to quantify.