March 13, 2020
I told you that without the tests no one had any idea how many people have it, but it cannot possibly be anywhere close to the “it’s just 1000 bro” number the Fake News York Times and the rest of the government-backed media keep giving us.
At time of writing, the NYT official map shows that there are only 5 cases in Ohio.
And none of the media is questioning this, despite the fact that they know there are almost no tests being done, meaning we have no idea how many people have it.
It is more likely that we all have it than that only 1200 or so people have it.
A total infection rate of 1% still seems really low to me. But over 100,000 in one state is a lot more believable than 1200 in the entire country.
A top health official in Ohio estimated on Thursday that more than 100,000 people in the state have coronavirus, a shockingly high number that underscores the limited testing so far.
Ohio Department of Health Director Amy Acton said at a press conference alongside Gov. Mike DeWine (R) that given that the virus is spreading in the community in Ohio, she estimates at least 1 percent of the population in the state has the virus.
“We know now, just the fact of community spread, says that at least 1 percent, at the very least, 1 percent of our population is carrying this virus in Ohio today,” Acton said. “We have 11.7 million people. So the math is over 100,000. So that just gives you a sense of how this virus spreads and is spreading quickly.”
She added that the slow rollout of testing means the state does not have good verified numbers to know for sure.
“Our delay in being able to test has delayed our understanding of the spread of this,” Acton said.
The Trump administration has come under intense criticism for the slow rollout of tests. Dr. Anthony Fauci, a top National Institutes of Health official, acknowledged earlier Thursday it is “a failing” that people cannot easily get tested for coronavirus in the United States.
Apparently, Trump thinks if he covers this up it will just go away.
Again, I think we need to remember that a top Trump Administration official published an op-ed in the New York Times in September of 2018 saying that his entire cabinet was working to undermine and subvert him. I don’t see any explanation for his behavior other than really bad advice, given to him on purpose, by someone trying to hurt him.
It is evident to me now that they are purposefully holding back the tests because they don’t want people to know how many are infected. But not testing people doesn’t mean that they don’t still have the disease.
The CDC has admitted to Congress that it’s possible that people being reported as dying of the flu – there have been about 50,000 flu deaths this season, an usually high number according to the CDC – are actually dying of Coronavirus.
2/2 美国疾控中心主任被抓了个现行。零号病人是什么时候在美国出现的？有多少人被感染？医院的名字是什么？可能是美军把疫情带到了武汉。美国要透明！要公开数据！美国欠我们一个解释！ pic.twitter.com/vYNZRFPWo3
— Lijian Zhao 赵立坚 (@zlj517) March 12, 2020
I think blaming the flu for Coronavirus deaths was probably part of the Trump Administration plan to just not test anyone and pretend this isn’t even happening.
We have literally no idea what is going on, and right now there is no reason to believe that this will be any less deadly in the US than it was in China.
Except in China, they locked down entire cities, forced people to stay inside except to buy food, and forced people who went outside to wear masks. We are doing absolutely none of that, obviously, so we are basically looking at the possibility of something close to a 100% infection rate.
Of course, some people won’t be susceptible.
But in a country that refuses to do any form of quarantine at all, refuses to require masks – and actually actively spreads dangerous disinformation about how “masks don’t really help tho lol” – I think Angela Merkel’s estimate of a 70% infection rate is probably about right.
So, let’s do some estimates of the numbers.
Basically, we take this chart:
And overlap it with this chart:
Then we have to factor in the fact that the US has a vastly less capable healthcare system than China, which is going to be difficult to quantify but also is self-evidently true and going to really change the dynamics…
The fatality rate in Italy, across all age ranges, is 5%, compared to China’s total of 3.5%, primarily due to having so much worse healthcare. And I’d wager our facilities are a lot worse off than Italy’s.
We’re probably looking at a situation where up to 5% of the US population dies in the next two months.