February 12, 2020
Of course Trump is going to win the election.
It’s really not much of a prediction at this point. Just a sort of simple observation.
As New Hampshire primary voters go to the polls, there already seems to be an impact from the Iowa caucus results on presidential preferences among Democrats nationwide. The latest Monmouth University Poll finds that Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden have swapped positions at the front of the pack, marking the first time Sanders has held the sole lead in national party preferences since Monmouth started polling the Democratic field one year ago. While Democratic challengers battle it out for the chance to take on President Donald Trump, two-thirds of all registered voters think the incumbent is going to be reelected, even though most Americans don’t think he deserves a second term.
Just over 4 in 10 (42%) registered voters feel that Trump should be reelected, while a majority (55%) say it is time to have someone new in the Oval Office. These numbers did not move much as the impeachment hearings and trial played out. Prior results were 41% reelect and 57% someone new in January, 43%-54% in December, and 42%-55% in November. The current results are also similar to late September when news about the president’s Ukraine call broke (39%-57%) and in August when the House impeachment inquiry was just getting started (39%-57%).
About two-thirds of American voters believe that Trump will definitely (27%) or probably (39%) get reelected in November. Just 22% say he will probably lose to the Democrat and only 6% say he will definitely lose to the Democrat. Republicans are brimming with confidence – 59% say reelection is definite and 34% probable – while Democrats are not so certain about their chances – just 11% say their nominee will definitely beat Trump and another 44% say it is probable that Trump will lose. On the other side of the coin, 38% of Democrats actually think it is more likely than not that Trump will win a second term. Just 4% of Republicans think Trump will lose to the Democrat.
“While most voters want to see Trump turned out of office, his steady ratings through the entire impeachment process and memories of how 2016 turned out suggest that few are willing to bet against him. And the Democratic nomination kickoff in Iowa did not exactly inspire confidence in the party’s ability to find someone who can take on the president,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.
The Democrats have, I believe, done this on purpose. They gain power by keeping Trump in office. It allows them to dance around and attack Trump without ever putting forward a coherent platform.
Furthermore, when they do take power, as they are planning to do in 2024, they will be able to reframe their platform as “repairing the country from the damage done by orange man.” This will include opening the borders, legalizing heroin, letting all blacks out of prison, attacking Russia, and so on.