Italy Will Face a Deadlier Second Peak as Lockdown is Eased, Says Highly Credible Imperial College London

“Stay home.”

These experts really don’t want people to leave their homes.

They are now saying that Italy will suffer a deadlier outbreak because they eased the lockdown too soon.

Presumably, they want the lockdown to only ever be eased after the virus disappears completely or a vaccine is found.

This is complete madness. We now know that coronavirus is as dangerous as the flu, and yet they’re continuing with their doomsday predictions.

Daily Mail:

Italy will be hit by a more deadly second coronavirus wave as it eases lockdown, according to a sobering report from Imperial College London.

Researchers modelled how the virus would spread in three scenarios – if the nation stayed in quarantine or if Italians increased their movements by 20 per cent and 40 per cent.

Even if Italians went back to just 20 per cent of their normal routine, it would spark a surge in deaths bigger than the first wave, which has so far killed 30,000 people.

If mobility returned to pre-lockdown levels by 40 per cent, there could be an additional 23,000 deaths, the report found.

The researchers admit their bleak predictions are pessimistic as they do not factor in preventative measures.

But they say their findings highlight the need for contact tracing apps, social distancing and mandatory mask-wearing when the country lifts its restrictions.

It comes during the week that Italy enters ‘phase two’ of its lockdown after almost two months.

Millions of Italians have been allowed to return to work at factories and contraction sites, public parks have opened up for exercise and families have been reunited.

The Imperial researchers used mathematical modelling to simulate COVID-19’s spread eight weeks into the future in all regions of Italy.

They found that if the country stayed in lockdown there would be a continued reduction in deaths.

But if Italians were to resume their normal pre-lockdown routines by 20 per cent, then a second outbreak would kill an extra 3,700 and 5,000 people, the report found.

If mobility went up by 40 per cent, the total number of excess deaths would be between 10,000 and 23,000.

It is not clear in the report how the second wave would eclipse the current death toll of 30,000.

MailOnline has approached the researchers for clarity.

The scientists say the reason deaths would rebound to such a large extent is driven by a large number of ongoing infections in the worst-hit parts of the country.

If more time is spent under current lockdown before easing restrictions, then infections will continue to fall and deaths ‘is likely to be considerably lower in both scenarios’.

It comes as Italians were back on the streets this week as the country lifted the longest lockdown in Europe and entered ‘phase two’ of the coronavirus crisis.

People who don’t leave their houses are less likely to die, yes.

People who are dead are also less likely to die.

We must force people to never leave their homes because all lives matter.

Every life counts.

We must save everyone.

We must leave no one behind.

We must secure a future where people can live as long as their bodies allow for.

In this future, no one will ever be exposed to danger.

We will force everyone to live hooked into a permanent dream-like virtual reality, floating in a strange anti-ageing liquid that will be specifically designed to keep the skin healthy and the human body from deteriorating too fast.