November 5, 2014
The national exit poll on House voting from CNN (these numbers continue to change slightly as the evening wears on):
A few comments:
- The margin for error in exit polls is larger than the sample size would suggest because they have to pre-pick polling stations to send pollsters to.
- I don’t think the GOP’s 60% of the white vote is enough to win the White House in 2016.
- After all the huffing and puffing by the media over Ferguson, the GOP wound up doing fine among blacks, getting 10% of their vote.
- Despite all the predictions of doom for the GOP over not passing amnesty, the Hispanic vote turned out pretty ho-hum.
- The GOP’s strong showing among Asians is interesting.
One possibility is that Obama personally made a big difference in the past in attracting some nonwhites to vote Democratic. Is it all that implausible that the nonwhites who show up to vote in Presidential elections but not in non-Presidential elections tend to be followers of Celebrity Culture?
By the way, if you feel like comparing the 2014 exit poll to the long-lost 2002 mid-term exit poll, here’s my 2003 analysis. The software crashed on election night 2002, so no exit polls were ever officially released. The next year, I bought the raw data for $95 and crunched it in Excel, and wrote it up.